Countdown to Cooperstown: Class of 2016

The three years prior to the 2016 induction could be, based on the "who's in" and "who's out" arguments, some of the most explosive years the Baseball Hall of Fame has ever seen.

Thankfully, the first ballot guys of the potential Class of 2016 might bring it all back down to Earth.

However it all shakes out, 2016 also looks to be the third year in a row that someone could argue a unanimous selection. And while no one will ever get 100% of the vote...it's hard to believe that anyone would not vote for Ken Griffey Jr. or Trevor Hoffman.

IN.

Ken Griffey Jr.

When Griffey finally gets into the Hall of Fame, it'll be the final step of an epic journey that started on Opening Day 1989.  But what can be said about Junior that you don't already know?  630 career home runs, 1836 RBI and 2781 hits pretty much make him a shoe-in.  And if that isn't good enough...how about ten Gold Gloves, 13 All-Star Game appearances and that 1997 American League MVP award?  Yeah...thought so.

Trevor Hoffman.

Hoffman is a tricky one.  Yes, dude is second all-time in saves, but the Hall of Fame has been unkind to some other closers (Lee Smith anyone?).  That said, I have a feeling that Hoffman and his 601 saves will make their way to Cooperstown.

OUT (in random order).

Garret Anderson.

The Angels' franchise leader in just about every offensive category, Anderson quietly put together one of the better careers of the last 20 years.  That said, there's no way dude gets into the Hall of Fame.  Simply put, while his .293 batting average, 2529 career hits and 522 doubles are the mark of a great career...there are too many others that fared much better.

Brad Ausmus, Luis Castillo, David Eckstein, Troy Glaus, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Guillen, Christian Guzman, Mike Hampton, Bobby Howry, Jason Kendall, Mike, Lowell, Damaso Marte, Gary Matthews Jr.,  Bengie Molina, Russ Ortiz, Chan Ho Park, Russ Springer, Mike Sweeney, Fernando Tatis, Jeff Weaver and Randy Winn.

ON THE BUBBLE.

Billy Wagner.

It's quite possible that after Mariano Rivera surpasses Trevor Hoffman as the all-time saves leader, the career of Wagner will begin to come into focus.  Right now, he sits fifth all-time in saves (with 422) and carries with him a 2.31 career ERA...half a run better than Hoffman. 

Jim Edmonds.

"Jimmy Baseball" is one of those players that if, in 2016, he got 50% or 5% I wouldn't be surprised.  His numbers, while pretty good, aren't great.  But then again...you can do plenty worse than his eight Gold Gloves and 393 home runs. 

Missed any of the other re-hashes from this week?  Be sure to check out 2013, 2014 and 2015 .  On Friday, your first look at 2017 hits the interwebs.

 

Countdown to Cooperstown: Class of 2016 (so far)

The three years prior to the 2016 induction could, based on the "who's in" and "who's out" arguments, be some of the most explosive years the Baseball Hall of Fame has ever seen.

Thankfully, the first ballot guys of the potential Class of 2016 might bring it all back down to Earth.

However it all shakes out, 2016 also looks to be the third year in a row that someone could argue a unanimous selection. And while no one will ever get 100% of the vote...it is hard to believe that anyone would not vote for the two pitchers mentioned or Ken Griffey Jr.

IN.

Ken Griffey Jr.

When Griffey finally gets into the Hall of Fame, it'll be the final step of an epic journey that started on Opening Day 1989.  But what can be said about Junior that you don't already know?  630 career home runs, 1836 RBI and 2781 hits pretty much make him a shoe-in.  And if that isn't good enough...how about ten Gold Gloves, 13 All-Star Game appearances and that 1997 American League MVP award?  Yeah...thought so.

Trevor Hoffman.

Hoffman is a tricky one.  If he was on the ballot this year, he'd make it in based on the fact that he is the all-time saves leader and the only closer in the history of the game with more than 600 saves.  Five years from now, however, he'll be second to Mariano Rivera.  Now, the Hall of Fame has been unkind to some other closers (Lee Smith anyone?)...but I have a feeling that Hoffman and his 601 saves eventually make their way to Cooperstown.

OUT (in random order).

Garret Anderson.

The Angels' franchise leader in just about every offensive category, Anderson quietly put together one of the better careers of the last 20 years.  That said, there's no way dude gets into the Hall of Fame.  Simply put, while his .293 batting average, 2529 career hits and 522 doubles are the mark of a great career...there are too many others that fared much better.

Mike Hampton, Bobby Howry, Randy Winn, Troy Glaus, Luis Castillo, Mike Lowell, Brad Ausmus, Mark Grudzielanek and Mike Sweeney.

ON THE BUBBLE.

Andy Pettitte.
Alright, how soon until people completely forget Pettitte's admission to using steroids?  I only ask because while some of his contemporaries while be left out in the Cooperstown cold, there are plenty of people out there that believe the five-time World Series champ has done enough to be enshrined.  What do I think?  I love the rings, his post season prowess and his 240-138 career record...but the 3.88 ERA and only 2251 isn't impressing me.

Billy Wagner.

It's quite possible that after Mariano Rivera surpasses Trevor Hoffman as the all-time saves leader, the career of Wagner will begin to come into focus.  Right now, he sits fifth all-time in saves (with 422) and carries with him a 2.31 career ERA...half a run better than Hoffman.  And while I'm saying Hoffman is "IN" and Wagner is "On the Bubble"...I'm not so sure that Wagner doesn't get in first.  We'll see.

Jim Edmonds.

"Jimmy Baseball" is one of those players that if, in 2016, he got 50% or 5% I wouldn't be surprised.  His numbers, while pretty good, aren't great.  But then again...you can plenty worse than his eight Gold Gloves and 393 home runs. 

So there you have it, gang...your week-long look ahead at the next five years of first ballot-eligible Hall of Famers comes to a close.  In case you missed any of them, check them out.

Monday:  2012
Tuesday:  2013
Wednesday:  2014
Thursday:  2015


 

Billy Wagner Files Retirement Papers...Cooperstown Next?

Following a 2009 season where he saw himself, for the first time, not a closer, Billy Wagner dropped the following quote…“I don’t plan on talking to nobody, I’ve got nothing else to (accomplish).”

Close to two months later…he inked a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves and had, arguably, one of the best seasons of his 16-year career.

This past Thursday, the 39-year-old lefty officially filed his retirement papers…but will we see him as part of the Hall of Fame class of 2016?

“300 saves used to be the milestone mark when closers were two or three inning guys,” former Royals closer Jeff Montgomery once told The Hall of Very Good, “but 400 will be the new mark as most good closers will reach the 40 save per year mark even on mediocre teams.”

With 422 saves, Wagner sits fifth on the all-time saves list, and while closers haven’t always gotten the love they deserve from the writers, Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman (who, coincidentally, will also be on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2016) are looked as no-brainers to get their ticket punched.

Conversely, the game’s all-time saves leader among lefties, John Franco, fourth all-time with 424 saves, recently received just 4.6% of the vote earlier this month. Lee Smith and his 478 saves has hovered between 36.6% and 47.3% during his nine year run on the ballot.

What can Wagner do to be a shoe-in?

To answer that, you have to go much deeper than just the number of saves he has amassed.

His career ERA of 2.31 is pretty spectacular!

Only once, during an injury plagued 2000 season, did Wagner’s ERA jump above 2.85. By comparison, Eckersley has a career ERA of just that (2.85) out of the pen…while Hoffman hovers around in the same neighborhood at 2.87.

Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings is as sick as his career ERA. To say that the 5’10” lefty doesn’t bring the heat would be like saying this weekend’s Bears-Packers match up lacks importance.

1196 punch outs (the most ever by a left-handed reliever) in only 903 innings is amazing.

In 1999, Wagner was the National League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year after closing out 39 games and holding opponents to a diminutive .135 batting average. He’s a seven-time All-Star, appeared in the post-season seven times (with four different teams) and in 2003, even closed out a no-hitter.

So why can’t Billy Wagner seem to get over the hump and be included in the same conversation as the other greats at his position?

Attitude.

That’s right, the same thing that managers crave from their closers is the same thing that might keep Wagner from becoming a baseball immortal.

Following the 2003 season, the Astros traded Wagner to the Phillies for Ezequiel Astacio, Taylor Buchholz and Brandon Duckworth. Something tells me that the Astros weren't looking for lightning in a bottle with the three bodies they got. I'm more inclined to believe they were looking to unload a problem child.

But back to that trade and before you give me some half-hearted “what’s a duck worth”, I’ll tell you this…in the two years following the deal, the trio of Astacio, Buchholz and Duckworth played in 76 games and combined for a 6.42 ERA with Houston.

In that same time, Wagner appeared in 120 games, collected 59 saves and had an ERA of 1.86 with Philadelphia. Unfortunately, repeated criticism of his teammates helped make Wagner’s stint in the City of Brotherly Love a short one.

Philadelphia’s National League East rival Mets were the next stop for Wagner. By many accounts, it was a combination of a 2008 season ending injury and a bad attitude that led New York to sign Francisco Rodriguez and, eventually, place Wagner on waivers.

"I don't want to end my career as a set-up man," Wagner said while the Mets looked for potential suitors. "I'd like to have that option (to close)."

Apparently, Boston missed that memo and they promptly picked up Wagner and used him as just that…a set-up man for their closer Jonathan Papelbon.

After announcing it would be his last season in the bigs, 2010 found “Billy the Kid” back in a familiar role…closing games for the Atlanta Braves. And with a career-best 1.43 ERA, 37 saves (in 44 chances) and 104 strikeouts in just 69 innings, the Braves found themselves a lefty who, apparently, had just crawled out of Doc Brown’s Delorian.

But then, true to his word…Wagner walked.

"(2010) has been nothing but great for me," Wagner said following his final game… Game 2 of the National League Division Series. "I thank God I got to retire as a Brave. It's the greatest honor I could ever have.”

So now we wait.

We wait to see how the BBWAA will treat the closer that was once deemed too small by many collegiate coaches.

We wait to see if, with the recent inductions of Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage, the writers have indeed changed their collective mind on closers.

Most importantly, we wait to see if the BBWAA will continue to be tough on those with what appear to be Hall of Fame numbers, but a piss poor attitude.

Only time will tell.

Billy Wagner Notches 400th Career Save

When Atlanta inked Billy Wagner to a one-year, $7 million contract in December it looked like they were grabbing for whatever closer they could nab.

The lefty hadn’t saved a game since July 2008 and the Braves had just extended their postseason drought to four seasons.

This season, Atlanta is atop the National League and the 38 year-old Wagner is having, in what he has already announced as his final year, a resurgence that can only be compared to that of the mythical Phoenix.

With 16 saves, a 5-0 record and a miniscule 1.39 ERA, the 16-year veteran is having an All-Star caliber season that was made all the more storybook this past week when he became just the fifth closer (and second lefty) in history to eclipse 400 saves.

Now, all one can wonder is where Wagner will end up all-time and whether or not the baseball writers will reward him with a place in Cooperstown.

You see, having the fifth most saves all-time means precious little, given the voting history of the BBWAA. Sure, Bruce Sutter (inducted in 2006) and Goose Gossage (2008) have gotten in in recent years, but it took them a combine 22 years on the ballot to do so.

Former all-time leader Lee Smith hasn’t sniffed more than 45% of the vote in his seven years on the ballot and John Franco’s first chance to crack the code is this upcoming January.

So what to make of Billy Wagner?

As I’ve said before, his career ERA of 2.34 is out of this world! Only once, during an injury plagued 2000 season, did Wagner’s ERA jump above 2.85. By comparison, Eckersley has a career ERA of just that (2.85) out of the pen…while Hoffman hovers around in the same neighborhood at 2.73.

Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings is equally as sick and to say that the 5’10” lefty doesn’t bring the heat would be like saying Quentin Tarantino’s latest “Inglourious Basterds” lacked violence. 1141 punch outs in 865 innings is amazing.

In 1999, he was the National League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year after closing out 39 games and holding opponents to a diminutive .135 batting average. He’s a six time All-Star, appeared in the post-season six times (with three different teams) and in 2003, even closed out a no-hitter.

With the input of former Kansas City Royals closer Jeff Montgomery, I broke down what I think of Wagner’s chances last fall, but what do you think?

Leave your comments below and be sure to cast your vote!

"The Ballad of Billy the Kid"

“I don’t plan on talking to nobody,” Billy Wagner told reporters when asked where he might end up next season. “I’ve got nothing else to (accomplish).”

Wagner has mouthed off before, so whether or not this is just another in a long line of quotable quotes or how he truly feels is a good question.

Unfortunately…only one person can answer that.

Whether or not he makes it to Cooperstown is another story.

Whenever “Billy the Kid” decides to finally call it quits, it’ll be five years and up to what will then be a group of close to 600 writers (currently, the BBWAA has 539 members) that make that decision for him.

With 385 saves, Wagner sits sixth on the all-time saves list. Just five saves ahead of him is Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley.

And while closers haven’t always gotten the love they deserve from the writers, Trevor Hoffman (591 career saves) and Mariano Rivera (526) are no-brainers to get their ticket punched.

What can Wagner do to be a shoe-in?

“300 saves used to be the milestone mark when closers were two or three inning guys,” former Royals closer Jeff Montgomery told The Hall of Very Good, “but 400 will be the new mark as most good closers will reach the 40 save per year mark even on mediocre teams.”

But what of Lee Smith and John Franco and their 478 and 424 saves?

“I think Smith should be considered for the Hall as well as Franco,” Montgomery added. “If Wagner returns and surpasses the 400 mark he should be considered also.”

But is Wagner going to return? That’s the big question! And if he doesn’t, will his 385 saves be enough to get him to Cooperstown?

To answer that, you have to go much deeper than just the number of saves he has amassed.

His career ERA of 2.39 is out of this world! Only once, during an injury plagued 2000 season, did Wagner’s ERA jump above 2.85. By comparison, Eckersley has a career ERA of just that (2.85) out of the pen…while Hoffman hovers around in the same neighborhood at 2.73.

Wagner’s 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings is as sick as his career ERA. To say that the 5’10” lefty doesn’t bring the heat would be like saying Quentin Tarantino’s latest “Inglourious Basterds” lacked violence. 1092 punchouts in just over 830 innings pitched is amazing.

In 1999, Wagner was the National League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year after closing out 39 games and holding opponents to a diminutive .135 batting average. He’s a six time All-Star, appeared in the post-season six times (with three different teams) and in 2003, even closed out a no-hitter.

So why can’t Billy Wagner seem to get over the hump and be included in the same conversation as the other greats at his position?

Attitude.

That’s right, the same thing that managers crave from their closers is the same thing that might keep Wagner from becoming a baseball immortal.

Following the 2003 season, the Astros traded Wagner to the Phillies for Ezequiel Astacio, Taylor Buchholz and Brandon Duckworth. Something tells me that the Astros weren't looking for lightning in a bottle with the three bodies they got. I'm more inclined to believe they were looking to unload a problem child.

But back to that trade and before you give me some half-hearted “what’s a duck worth”, I’ll tell you this…in the two years following the deal, the trio of Astacio, Buchholz and Duckworth played in 76 games and combined for a 6.42 ERA with Houston.

In that same time, Wagner appeared in 120 games, collected 59 saves and had an ERA of 1.86 with Philadelphia. Unfortunately, repeated criticism of his teammates helped make Wagner’s stint in the City of Brotherly Love a short one.

Philadelphia’s National League East rival Mets were the next stop for Wagner. By many accounts, it was a combination of a 2008 season ending injury and a bad attitude that led New York to sign Francisco Rodriguez and, eventually, place Wagner on waivers.

"I don't want to end my career as a set-up man," Wagner said while the Mets looked for potential suitors. "I'd like to have that option (to close)."

Apparently, Boston missed that memo and once Wagner agreed to it, they picked him up and used him as just that…a set-up man for their closer Jonathan Papelbon. Red Sox fans know how that ballad ended Sunday afternoon.

So what’s next for the flame throwing lefty?

He can enter the free agent market this off season and see if there is a team out there willing to take their chances with a 38 year-old closer.

Or, he can retire now, 15 saves short of 400 (his last one coming on July 29, 2008) and seemingly enter Cooperstown at second place on the all-time list of saves by a lefty.

That being said…the BBWAA has been tough on those with what appear to be Hall of Fame numbers, but a piss poor attitude.

Only time will tell.

***Recently The Hall asked "who is the game's best closer"...67% of you responded Mariano Rivera, 10% said Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley, 5% said Goose Gossage, 3% answered Rollie Fingers while no one said Bruce Sutter.***

Hooray for Saturday!

A lot of kids growing up get excited for the normal made up holidays…Valentine’s Day, Halloween, the last day of school. Me…I always got jazzed up about the day the Hall of Fame announcement was made.

Sure, it doesn’t have some fancy name or some wing at the Hallmark store dedicated to it, but it was, for a couple hours in January…my Christmas.

Well, TECHNICALLY, Christmas was Christmas…but you get the idea.

Then, after six months of thinking about it, we get what amounts to New Years Eve, a relative’s wedding or basically any other “holiday” where someone stands up and makes some clichéd speech about what an honor it is and how they never thought they would make it.

This weekend, we get the pleasure of hearing what I am sure is going to be another in a long line of self indulgent speeches when Rich “Goose” Gossage takes center stage.

Gossage is a guy who went from 33% of the vote to close to 86% in eight years. Somehow he convinced 300 votes that all of a sudden he was good enough to become the next great reliever to be inducted into the Hall. Apparently he wasn’t only a top notch closer…he’s a wizard! Heck, he’s not even the lone “Goose” to be elected into Baseball’s hallowed halls!

In my estimation, he was on the right ballot at the right time.

For some reason, voters don’t seem to want to enshrine Jim Rice or Andre Dawson and they live by some wacky code that SOMEONE needs to be voted in. But in an age of “did he” or “didn’t he”…the Hall wasn’t about to open its doors to the likes of Mark McGwire or Tim Raines. I get it.

Which brings me to what I saw recently on ESPN. Buster Olney and Buck Showalter were given five names of current Major Leaguers and were asked what they thought about their chances.

The names were no-brainers…Mike Mussina, Billy Wagner, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel and Gary Sheffield. Let’s break ‘em down.

MIKE MUSSINA

To me, “Moose” is an interesting case. On paper, you see a HUGE winning percentage (.637), a brilliant 263 and 150 record and close to 2800 Ks. His career ERA is 3.69 and one could argue that had he not toiled for more than half of his career in Baltimore…he would be as much of a Hall candidate as Tom Glavine. HOWEVER, Glavine had five seasons with more than 20 wins. Mussina, while he’s hit double digits in wins seventeen straight years, has yet to eclipse 20. The Cy Young award has eluded Mussina as well. Unfortunately, six top five finishes and no hardware doesn’t make for the best Hall of Fame case. Showalter, said Mussina is a Hall of Famer…Olney disagreed. I’m with Olney on this one. Outside of wins and consistency, and this sounds stupid to say, Mussina just hasn’t SHOWN me anything spectacular.

BILLY WAGNER

Wagner should eclipse Eckersley on the all-time saves list this season and enter next year’s campaign firmly in fifth place all-time, third on the active list. That being said, he’s still WELL behind Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith AND is a guy who has never led the league in saves. By comparison, Hoffman has only led the National League twice, but he has nine seasons with more than 40 saves. Rivera has led the American League three times and has six seasons with more than 40 saves. Wagner has two. I’m not saying that Wagner isn’t a premier closer…I’m just saying that if Lee Smith can’t get a sniff at a time when Bruce Sutter, Eckersley and Gossage are…Billy Wagner is going to have a rough time competing for the writer’s affection with the likes of Hoffman and Rivera still out there. As for Olney and Showalter…they split again. Showalter was a “maybe”, while Olney “agrees” with me.

JIM THOME

I’ve made the case for Thome and over the last year…he hasn’t done anything to make me feel otherwise. He’s got 526 home runs and barely 2000 hits. He’s going to have to do PLENTY more to sway me. Again, Olney and I are “no” votes…Showalter, predictably, was a “yes”.

OMAR VIZQUEL

Again, this is a drum I’ve beaten before and is one of those guys that I LOVE to bring into the conversation when it presents itself. Not surprisingly, Olney, Showalter and I agree across the board with “Sheik Omar”. As much as I would hate to see him hang it up…I think Omar needs to ride off into the sunset before he ruins his storied career.

GARY SHEFFIELD

Now…here’s a guy who, in all honesty, deserves his own column. Does he pass the smell test? Not sure…he plays alongside some FANTASTIC players. Matter of fact, he’s been overshadowed by plenty of them, but has put up some amazing numbers. A .294 career average, 2570 hits, 487 home runs and 1600 RBI puts him in a similar league as Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell and Ernie Banks. HOWEVER…that’s where some of the similarities end unfortunately since each of the afore mentioned have bettered Sheff’s three top five MVP finishes by taking home the award at least once. I could go on and on about Sheffield (and I might just do that in the near future), but it is interesting to note that the nine time All-Star only once led the league in a major statistical category…he batted an NL best .330 in 1992. So…what did the ESPN experts think? Olney said “yes” and Showalter, for some reason, disagreed. Me? I agree with Buster…not Buck.

So what about you? I’ll put each up for vote…and you tell me what you think!