The numbers game continues

Baseball is a game of numbers…so it should come as no surprise that when a milestone is met, the dates then become part of the lore.

August 4, 1984…Tom Seaver gets his 300 victory at Yankee Stadium on Phil Rizzuto Day. That same day, Rod Carew notches his 3000th hit.

May 1, 1991…Rickey Henderson becomes the “greatest of all time” by surpassing Lou Brock’s all-time steals mark. Later…Nolan Ryan gets his seventh no-hitter. And speaking of milestones, Henderson would later become Ryan’s 5000th strikeout victim.

September 6, 1995…Cal Ripken Jr. surpasses Lou Gehrig on the consecutive games played list.

Recently, we’ve seen some GREAT milestones as well…June 28 comes to mind. That’s the day that Frank Thomas hit his 500th home run and a few hours later Craig Biggio got his 3000th hit.

Now, given the fascination that baseball has with numbers…I’m confused by the TV coverage this past Sunday. Jim Thome knocks out his 500th in dramatic fashion…fair enough. Meanwhile, Todd Jones earned his 300th save and, for some reason, was compared favorably to what Thome accomplished.

Huh?!?

You heard me…ESPN was actually trying to fool us into thinking that Jones' 300 saves was a milestone worth noting. Is it notable because 300 sure sounds like a lot of saves? Is it notable because he now sits twentieth on the all-time saves list whereas Thome now sits twenty third on the home run list?

Is it notable because he’s now tied with Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter?

My guess is that it is a combination of the three, but let’s be honest…any list where you rank BEHIND Doug Jones and Tom Henke doesn’t make you worthy of a milestone mention.

NOW…this is the point where, typically, I would break off and do some sort of side by side comparison of Sutter and someone like Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera. All the while, I’d be making some snide comment about how Bruce Sutter doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. OR, better yet, if Sutter is in the Hall, why can’t Lee Smith or Jeff Reardon seem to get any votes…much less free parking when in Cooperstown?

I’ll be honest, it’s not worth my time…or yours.

Sure, he's in...but what cap would he wear?

Dear Readers…truth or dare?

Dare you say?

Fair enough. I want you to go outside RIGHT NOW and ask the first person you see who the BEST second baseman was over the last quarter century. And when they answer “Ryne Sandberg”…punch them in the face.

Why? They’re lying to you.

Unquestionably, Ryno was good. But he isn’t the BEST to play the position this side of 1980. I know, I know…Sandberg was the MVP in 1984. He once had the most home runs by a second baseman and nabbed nine straight Gold Gloves.

He was pretty good.

Roberto Alomar was better. Hands down.

Matter of fact, he might be the best modern day second baseman...even though Joe Morgan would tell you otherwise. Some people might even go on to tell you that Alomar wasn’t ever the best player on the field for any of the seven teams he played for. Much like Morgan, I’d tell you that neither were Craig Biggio and Jeff Kent and they’re both Hall of Fame caliber middle infielders. And yes...THAT Jeff Kent.

Let’s break this down…plain and simple.

The case for Alomar is an easy one…even easier when compared to the most recent Hall inductee at second base, Ryne Sandberg.

Here ya go:

• Alomar went to twelve straight All-Star games (nine as a starter), compared to Ryno’s ten.
  Ten Gold Gloves over a span of eleven years is the most ever by a second baseman.
  
• His .984 fielding percentage is a hair behind Sandberg’s .989.
  
• His 2724 hits (and career .300 batting average) is the most by any EVERY DAY second baseman since Charlie Gehringer’s 2839. Gehringer was inducted in 1949. FYI…Sandberg finished with 2386 and a .285 batting average.
  
• Even, Alomar’s OPS+ (a stat that I am not THAT high on, but some people are) of 116 is smack dab in the middle of the pack when you look at those already enshrined. For the record, Sandberg’s was 114. Joe Morgan...a surprising 132.
  
• Alomar even slugged .347 in back to back World Series victories for the Blue Jays

And yes, for every “case for”…there is a case against:

• Alomar lacks an identity. His longest stint with any team was five years with the Blue Jays.


• As mentioned, Alomar was overshadowed on nearly every team he played for (Tony Gwynn in San Diego, Joe Carter in Toronto, Cal Ripken in Baltimore, Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez in Cleveland).


• When he is eligible in 2010, he’ll likely be up against Tim Raines, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez. Granted, they’re not ALL Hall of Famers…but they’ll garner some attention and steal (pun intended in Raines' case) some votes.


• And, unfortunately, the spitting incident with umpire John Hirshbeck.

Alomar was the type of player that, because he was so damn solid for nearly 17 seasons…people FORGET that he was a hitting machine. From his second year in the majors (1989) until 2001, Alomar hit UNDER .295 only twice. He even had an impressive run of nine out of ten years where he hit .300 or better.

Open your doors for Robbie, Cooperstown, I’ll be watching...all the while knowing that the best second baseman I ever saw play is getting his just desserts.

Jim Thome? Not so fast.

***Note: I've since revised this thing (slightly) since it was written in September 2007. Please check out a fresher take HERE!***

So we’re living in a juiced ball era (alledgedly)…I can accept that.

By the time the curtain closes on this current season, we’ll have seen Barry Bonds set the new home run record, two players (Sammy Sosa and Kenny Griffey) eclipse 600 and potentially four (Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez) surpass 500.

By my count, we’ll have 24 members of the 500 club and of the Hall eligible, all but one (Mark McGwire) is enshrined and another (Rafael Palmeiro) will be the unfortunate poster child for the steroid era given he tested positive.

Over the next couple of years, more players will hit the 500 mark then every before, but it’ll drop off. It’s kinda like the early 80s when, if you sneezed hard enough, another veteran pitcher hit his 300th victory.

Milestones are milestones, and they’re great, but let me ask this…is the 500 home run mark watered down? More specifically…is someone like Jim Thome a Hall of Famer? Now, by living in the Midwest, I’ve had the conversation with my peers…I’ve heard it talked about on the radio. People LOVE this guy.

I’m not convinced. The guy hit a bunch of bombs in an era when EVERYONE did. Confused by that statement? Let me put it in perspective…Jim Thome has led the league in home runs ONCE. If anything, Thome is the Webster’s Dictionary definition of “consistent”…not dominant. Never once, have I thought of dominant first basemen and come up with the name “Thome”.

Jeff Bagwell…sure. Todd Helton…most definitely. Frank Thomas…without a doubt.

The case for Thome reads like this:

• He is a prolific power hitter that could very well end up in the top 12 on the home run list by the time he retires.
  
• Nine 100+ RBI seasons, six 40+ home run seasons.
  
• Career on base percentage over .400…not too shabby.
  
• While he has no Gold Gloves to show for it, this converted third baseman is VERY overlooked as a fielder. Thome has a career fielding percentage of .994 at first base.

The case against:

• Less than 2000 career hits is VERY underwhelming. Edgar Renteria has more hits than Jim Thome.
  
• No MVP awards, only one top five finish (fourth in 2003).
  
• Third on the all-time strikeout list.
  
• No rings in two World Series appearances...a career .229 post season batting average. Heck...he wasn't even the best player on the Indians during his days in Cleveland.
  
• There will be FAR too many more qualified first time inductees by the time Thome becomes eligible.

There you have it...Thome is very good, not great. Hall of Famer? Perhaps…but not on the first couple of ballots. In short, we’ve got a guy who smacked the Hell out of the ball, but was never the most dominant, much less feared, player of his era. And because of that, he'll get lost in the mix. Also, a fifth of his games played have been as a DH…and ask Harold Baines how that has helped HIS case to get into Cooperstown without having to open up his wallet.

***Note: The "is Jim Thome a first ballot Hall of Famer?" poll garnered the following results...Yes-41% (23 votes), No-59% (33 votes). I guess a number of you agree with me!***

30-3...insert lame Matt Stover reference here!

If you watched any of the sports shows tonight, you know that the Texas Rangers beat the tar out of the Orioles.

And yes, the same night that saw a team plate the most runs in 110 years also saw a team score the most runs off of Brandon Webb in the last 42 innings.

One.

You see, one dubious distinction is a fluke (Hell, Wes Littleton came away with the save)…the other is masterful in this age of seven inning starters and hitter friendly ballparks.

What Brandon Webb did is the longest streak since fellow National Leaguer Orel Hershiser threw 59 scoreless innings(Luis Tiant once tossed 40 straight). And while I am not one to suggest putting someone in the Hall of Fame solely on a streak (PAUSE), Orel Hershiser was one of the most dominating pitchers of the late 80s and early 90s.

Let’s put what Orel did into perspective.

First…the scoreless innings streak. We know it spanned Hershiser’s last six starts of the 1988 season (and into the next season), but five were complete games. The sixth, he threw ten scoreless innings. Not too shabby. Let’s delve deeper. In Hershiser’s last nine starts, he gave up FOUR earned runs in 82 innings. That’s an ERA of 0.42 while leading his team into the playoffs and eventually to the World Series, kids. Eight straight complete games out of nine starts to end a season is pretty darned good.

Second…Orel was ARGUABLY one of the most dominant pitchers of the 80s. Hershiser notched 98 wins between 1984 and 1989…an average of 16 per year. To put that into perspective, Roger Clemens had 95, Dwight Gooden had 100 and Bret Saberhagen (remember him?) had 92. Nolan Ryan (the ONLY Hall member to have toed the rubber as a starter for the ENTIRE 80s) had 70 in that same span. Hershiser had an ERA of 2.68 (2.03 in 1985, 2.26 in 1988 and 2.31 in 1989)…second only to Gooden’s 2.64. The other guys mentioned, were all above 3.00. And speaking of 1988…Hershiser led the league in wins (23), innings (267) and complete games (15). Add to that his 8 shutouts, the Cy Young Award and his World Series MVP and he had one of the best seasons in recent memory.

Out of curiosity, how does Hershiser stack up against some current Hall of Famers? According to baseball-reference.com is stats are most comparable to Jim Hunter. “Bulldog” has a career record of 204-149 (.576 winning percentage), while “Catfish” went 224-166 (.574). From 1984-1989, Hershiser notched 48% of his wins. Similarly, “Catfish” had a six year run from 1970 to 1975 where he was one of the league’s best (129-63, 56% of his career wins).

Strikeouts were never the forte for either pitcher. “Cat” had 2012 careers Ks…“Dog” had 2014. Their ERAs were a wash as well…3.26 for Hunter, 3.48 for Hershiser. Coincidently, each pitcher brought home the Cy Young Award once and placed in the top four three other times.

Is Hershiser Hall-bound?

Probably not...yet.

But why not? He was one of the best pitchers during a decade that has VERY little mound representation in Cooperstown. Next to Ryan, Dennis Eckersley is the only other pitcher to have a career that spanned the 80s. As far as future Hall of Fame pitchers, Clemens came on board in 1984 (along with Hershiser)…Greg Maddux joined the league in 1986.

While his contemporaries (Gooden, Saberhagen, Frank Viola) failed to reach 200 victories, Hershiser did…and he did it in style.

Somewhere…Jack Morris (my pick for the MOST dominating pitcher of the ENTIRE 80s) is polishing his gun waiting to shoot me for NOT mentioning him anywhere.

Sorry ‘stache.

Holy Cow...Someone Died

"Here's the windup, fastball, hit deep to right, this could be it! Way back there! Holy cow, he did it! Sixty-one for Maris! And look at the fight for that ball out there! Holy cow, what a shot! Another standing ovation for Maris, and they're still fighting for that ball out there, climbing over each other's backs. One of the greatest sights I've ever seen here at Yankee Stadium!"

- some guy saying something about someone doing something in 1961

I don't know if it is because I didn't watch baseball in the 40s and 50s or perhaps I'm just jaded (likely)...but is it THAT big of a deal that Phil Rizzuto died? If you watched ANY television last night, you saw that Rizzuto died and the world was in mourning. I'm pretty sure I even heard that flags were to be lowered.

I mean...the guy is a Hall of Fame player and all, but I can't figure out why or how.

His stats are underwhelming by Hall standards...273 avg., 1588 hits and only a .968 fielding percentage. Granted, he had one MVP award, but c'mon...so did Barry Larkin.

Which leads me to...Barry Larkin!

Is Larkin a Hall of Famer? Ask anyone just north of Covington, Kentucky (yes, that's a random shout out) and they'd say "ayup". Ask anyone else and they'd be left scratching their heads.

Me?!? I say "yes".

BUT...it has to be done soon before Omar, A-Rod, Jeter and the like start banging on Cooperstown's doors. The case for Larkin goes like so...295 avg., 2340 hits, 198 homers and a .975 fielding percentage.

Oh, he also has that one MVP award and a World Series ring.

Compare his stats to Ozzie Smith and Pee Wee Reese and they are comparable if not better. Ozzie's average was thirty points lower but had 120 more hits (he also played in 400 more games than Larkin...getting close to 1400 more at bats). Fielding average (the key to Ozzie's greatness)...978. Larkin came in at .975.

Yikes.

Wait, you mean to tell me that Barry Larkin DWARFED the "Wizard of Oz (or was it Ahs)"?!?

Ayup.

For git and shiggles, I went to Baseball Reference to see where some other notables rank compared to Larkin. Omar Vizquel rating was 119 (they say a rating of 100 means you are a shoe-in)...Larkin came in at 118. So does Jeff Kent.

Hmmm...that gives me an idea.

755*

*-Denotes: Suck it Bud Selig.

Bonds, A-Rod and Glavine

Hooray…Barry Bonds hit number 755.

Alex Rodriguez became the latest to join the 500 club even though you would have thought that he just his number 800.

Tom Glavine and his 300 wins is next.

This year has CLEARLY become the year of the milestone. And by milestone, I mean the number that seemingly automatically cements someone’s place in Cooperstown. But baseball is tricky sometimes.

Mark McGwire hits 583 out and gets ceremoniously left out of the Hall. Bert Blyleven retires THIRD on the all-time strikeout list (only behind Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton) and can’t buy admittance.

So, that begs the question…is Glavine a shoe-in?

Let’s compare what he has done to someone that the Hall seems to not even recognize as a Major League ballplayer.

The afore mentioned…Bert Blyleven.

People rally AGAINST Blyleven saying that he only garnered the numbers he did because he played 22 seasons. It’s true…he did. However, Glavine is in his 21st season. Blyleven notched 287 wins in his 692 games…Glavine has pitched in 658 and amazingly started all of them. Blyleven has 3701 Ks…Glavine has 2543. Both players have had 17 seasons with ten or more victories. Glavine’s ERA of 3.49 is greater than Blyleven’s 3.31. Do I need to compare Blyleven’s 242 complete games and 60 shut outs to Glavine’s 56 and 25?
I thought not.

Glavine will be the third pitcher (and 23rd overall) to get his 300th victory since 1990 (Clemens and Maddux being the others)…that’s pretty remarkable. He also has five seasons with 20 or more victories…Blyleven did it once. Jim Kaat and Tommy John only did it three times. Hell, Maddux had 20 only twice…but he had 18-plus NINE times.

I ask again…aside from his 300 wins, why is Glavine THAT spectacular? To put it bluntly…he will be the LAST player (yes, you heard me right) to get 300 for a long, long time. After Glavine, Randy Johnson is next on the all-time list with 284…but he might never pitch again.

After that, Mike Mussina comes in with 245. David Wells is ten behind him and Jamie Moyer ten behind Boomer. So, as you can see, there isn’t anyone that’ll match Glavine. Matter of fact, there are 10 pitchers playing right now that have at least 150 victories (half of where Glavine is at) and the youngest of them is 35.

Soak it up baseball fans, enjoy the pitching milestones while you can…you won’t see anything like this for a while.

Ripken, Gwynn...now what?!?

I grew up a fan of Tim Raines. I mean…SOMEONE south of Thunder Bay had to be a fan of the Expos, right?

Why not me?!?

I always kinda thought that Raines was one of the best out there. Along with Rickey Henderson, there were REALLY only two guys you would want to lead off for you.

But here’s the rub, there is NO WAY that Tim Raines goes into the Hall of Fame BEFORE Henderson and when you compare his stats to some of the game’s other premier base stealers and/or lead off men…was he THAT good?

Let’s line ‘em up.

Rickey Henderson. No contest…read my previous post.

Lou Brock. Brock was “Rickey” before Rickey was “Rickey”. 3000-plus hits and 938 steals gets you into the Hall of Fame no questions asked. Matter of fact…when Brock was inducted into the Hall, Henderson was the active leader with only 500 steals. The point is…Brock was pretty dominant and still only mustered 80% of the vote. Raines will have a hard time trying to best that first time out.

Vince Coleman. Vince was a FAR better base stealer than Raines, but injuries and the inability to get on base (not good for a leadoff guy) rendered him useless. Still, Coleman ended up with 752 steals compared to Raines’ 808. Coleman having almost the same amount of steals in about HALF the games played as Raines means Rock WASN’T as great on the base paths as once remembered. OR…there was at least another person better.

Kenny Lofton. This is where it gets fun. Ask ANYONE if Kenny Lofton is a Hall of Famer and they would say (without hesitation) “no”.

And they’d PROBABLY be right...for now.

HOWEVER…compare his stats to Raines and you’ve got one compelling argument against Raines. Raines only has 2605 hits (FYI…Lofton will surpass that) in 2502 games, but carries a .294 career average. Raines was dominant for a six to seven year span…that is about it. Lofton has been solid since his rookie year in 1992.

I could go on and on about Raines and his inclusion in the Hall…fact is, he won’t make it in first ballot (good news for fellow great Expo Andre Dawson or former Red Sox Jim Rice) and might not make it in on his second ballot (Rickey Henderson will best him that year). He had a history of drug use AND was only dominant for half a decade. And during that time, he wasn’t even the face of his franchise (Dawson and Gary Carter were)…so it is a hard, hard argument to make that he is an early ballot shoe-in.

So, a year from now…who will we have just inducted into Cooperstown if “Rock” doesn’t make it in? There are NO other first ballot guys, but a slew of guys that SHOULD be there.

My guess…Rice and “Goose” Gossage, but if I had my way, Dawson gets welcomed as well. However, I think it is a 1970s Boston-New York affair next year.